Is your Second Life really someone else's third life?
Fancy doing your head in? Try this on for size.
According to a futurologist, there's a high probability your reality could be nothing more than an advanced version of Second Life for a future race ("Are you living in a computer simulation?")
Here's a summary of the theory from New Scientist:
SCIENCE has revealed much about the world and our position within it. Generally, the findings have been humbling. The Earth is not the centre of the universe. Our species descended from brutes. We are made of the same stuff as mud. We are moved by neurophysiological signals and subject to a variety of biological, psychological and sociological influences over which we have limited control and little understanding. One of our remaining sources of pride is technological progress. Like the polyps that over time create coral reefs, the many generations of humans that have come before us have built up a vast technological infrastructure. Our habitat is now largely one of human making. The fact of technological progress is also in a sense humbling. It suggests that the most advanced technology we have today is extremely limited and primitive compared with what our descendants will have.
If we extrapolate these expected technological advances, and think through some of their logical implications, we arrive at another humbling conclusion: the "simulation argument", which has caused some stir since I published it three years ago. The formal version of the argument requires some probability theory, but the underlying idea can be grasped without mathematics. It starts with the assumption that future civilisations will have enough computing power and programming skills to be able to create what I call "ancestor simulations". These would be detailed simulations of the simulators' predecessors – detailed enough for the simulated minds to be conscious and have the same kinds of experiences we have. Think of an ancestor simulation as a very realistic virtual reality environment, but one where the brains inhabiting the world are themselves part of the simulation.
The simulation argument makes no assumption about how long it will take to develop this capacity. Some futurologists think it will happen within the next 50 years. But even if it takes 10 million years, it makes no difference to the argument. Let me state what the conclusion of the argument is. The conclusion is that at least one of the following three propositions must be true:
1 Almost all civilisations at our level of development become extinct before becoming technologically mature.
2 The fraction of technologically mature civilisations that are interested in creating ancestor simulations is almost zero.
3 You are almost certainly living in a computer simulation.
...
What Copernicus and Darwin and latter-day scientists have been discovering are the laws and workings of the simulated reality. These laws might or might not be identical to those operating at the more fundamental level of reality where the computer that is running our simulation exists (which, of course, may itself be a simulation). In a way, our place in the world would be even humbler than we thought. What kind of implications would this have? How should it change the way you live your life? Your first reaction might think that if three is true, then all bets are off and you would go crazy. To reason thus would be an error. Even if we are in a simulation, the best methods of predicting what will happen next are still the familiar ones – extrapolation of past trends, scientific modelling and common sense. To a first approximation, if you thought you were in a simulation, you should get on with your life in much the same way as if you were convinced that you were leading a non-simulated life at the "bottom" level of reality. If we are in a simulation, could ever know for certain? If the simulators don't want us to find out, we probably never will. But if they choose to reveal themselves, they could certainly do so. Another event that would let us conclude with a high degree of confidence that we are in a simulation is if we ever reach a point when we are about to switch on our own ancestor simulations. That would be very strong evidence against the first two propositions, leaving us only with the third.
Firstly, someone has been watching a little too much Matrix.
Secondly, there's a job called 'futurologist'? That has got to be the absolute ice breaker at parties.
Thirdly, did anyone else notice that the author has claimed that the computer simulating our reality could also be a simulation? Like, a civilisation wanted to simulate how another cilivisation would simulate itself? How could he even think about that without his head collapsing into itself?
Finally, he's snuck in a little claim at the end that gave me a giggle - re-read the last two sentences. Basically, we may become aware of our own simulation status when we try to switch on our own ancestor simulations. Can you imagine that little exchange? "Hey, Jeff - you know that ancestor simulation we've been working on for, like, 20 years? Well, umm - here's a thought: what if we're actually in one of these simulations? Aww dude that makes my freaking head hurt."
So, how does it feel to learn that you're nothing more than a play pawn for a spotty kid from the future that works at the intergalactic video store, still lives with his astro parents and hasn't had a cyber girlfriend?
According to a futurologist, there's a high probability your reality could be nothing more than an advanced version of Second Life for a future race ("Are you living in a computer simulation?")
Here's a summary of the theory from New Scientist:
SCIENCE has revealed much about the world and our position within it. Generally, the findings have been humbling. The Earth is not the centre of the universe. Our species descended from brutes. We are made of the same stuff as mud. We are moved by neurophysiological signals and subject to a variety of biological, psychological and sociological influences over which we have limited control and little understanding. One of our remaining sources of pride is technological progress. Like the polyps that over time create coral reefs, the many generations of humans that have come before us have built up a vast technological infrastructure. Our habitat is now largely one of human making. The fact of technological progress is also in a sense humbling. It suggests that the most advanced technology we have today is extremely limited and primitive compared with what our descendants will have.
If we extrapolate these expected technological advances, and think through some of their logical implications, we arrive at another humbling conclusion: the "simulation argument", which has caused some stir since I published it three years ago. The formal version of the argument requires some probability theory, but the underlying idea can be grasped without mathematics. It starts with the assumption that future civilisations will have enough computing power and programming skills to be able to create what I call "ancestor simulations". These would be detailed simulations of the simulators' predecessors – detailed enough for the simulated minds to be conscious and have the same kinds of experiences we have. Think of an ancestor simulation as a very realistic virtual reality environment, but one where the brains inhabiting the world are themselves part of the simulation.
The simulation argument makes no assumption about how long it will take to develop this capacity. Some futurologists think it will happen within the next 50 years. But even if it takes 10 million years, it makes no difference to the argument. Let me state what the conclusion of the argument is. The conclusion is that at least one of the following three propositions must be true:
1 Almost all civilisations at our level of development become extinct before becoming technologically mature.
2 The fraction of technologically mature civilisations that are interested in creating ancestor simulations is almost zero.
3 You are almost certainly living in a computer simulation.
...
What Copernicus and Darwin and latter-day scientists have been discovering are the laws and workings of the simulated reality. These laws might or might not be identical to those operating at the more fundamental level of reality where the computer that is running our simulation exists (which, of course, may itself be a simulation). In a way, our place in the world would be even humbler than we thought. What kind of implications would this have? How should it change the way you live your life? Your first reaction might think that if three is true, then all bets are off and you would go crazy. To reason thus would be an error. Even if we are in a simulation, the best methods of predicting what will happen next are still the familiar ones – extrapolation of past trends, scientific modelling and common sense. To a first approximation, if you thought you were in a simulation, you should get on with your life in much the same way as if you were convinced that you were leading a non-simulated life at the "bottom" level of reality. If we are in a simulation, could ever know for certain? If the simulators don't want us to find out, we probably never will. But if they choose to reveal themselves, they could certainly do so. Another event that would let us conclude with a high degree of confidence that we are in a simulation is if we ever reach a point when we are about to switch on our own ancestor simulations. That would be very strong evidence against the first two propositions, leaving us only with the third.
Firstly, someone has been watching a little too much Matrix.
Secondly, there's a job called 'futurologist'? That has got to be the absolute ice breaker at parties.
Thirdly, did anyone else notice that the author has claimed that the computer simulating our reality could also be a simulation? Like, a civilisation wanted to simulate how another cilivisation would simulate itself? How could he even think about that without his head collapsing into itself?
Finally, he's snuck in a little claim at the end that gave me a giggle - re-read the last two sentences. Basically, we may become aware of our own simulation status when we try to switch on our own ancestor simulations. Can you imagine that little exchange? "Hey, Jeff - you know that ancestor simulation we've been working on for, like, 20 years? Well, umm - here's a thought: what if we're actually in one of these simulations? Aww dude that makes my freaking head hurt."
So, how does it feel to learn that you're nothing more than a play pawn for a spotty kid from the future that works at the intergalactic video store, still lives with his astro parents and hasn't had a cyber girlfriend?
Comments